The Top 5 Industries Most Likely To Be Affected by Tariffs

America’s mineral and food supply chain vulnerabilities could complicate and increase costs for U.S. industries and their consumers.

Tariffs – taxes levied on imported goods – are causing uncertainty in the 2025 market.  President Trump’s use of tariffs represents a bold departure from the free trade regime of the last 40 years, an attempt to create what the White House has described as “reciprocal trade” more balanced in the U.S.’s favor. While China has been subject to tariffs since the first Trump administration, the president is also levying tariffs on Canada and Mexico, currently America’s two biggest trading partners. The President has also discussed placing tariffs on the EU.

With that in mind, NationalBusinessCapital.com researched the current vulnerabilities of domestic industries to tariffs, both foreign and domestic. The report found the biggest vulnerabilities in mining and agriculture, with service industries like educational services, the arts, and retail trade largely domestic affairs. No industry is completely immune.

Even industries that don’t directly import or export commodities like healthcare services are still exposed to trade in the form of pharmaceuticals and equipment manufactured overseas. Time will tell how long the trade war continues and how quickly domestic industries can adapt or even seize upon the opportunities created by this tactic.

While the report looked at industry rather than consumer impact, increased costs and disruptions to supply chains will typically raise prices for end consumers, at least in the short term. For example, a consumer buying a toy for their child from the retail trade industry could be absorbing tariff costs from raw materials from Canada and/or manufactured goods from China. Whether these costs are ultimately offset by salary and job creation from reshoring, improved efficiencies, and money collected through the tariffs themselves will speak to the staying power of this foreign policy strategy. 

Key Findings

• Mining May Be A Critical Vulnerability For The U.S. In A Prolonged Trade War: America has taken great pains to reduce its fossil fuel dependence on other countries, but imports significant amounts of wood, primary metals, and nonmetallic minerals from other nations. The materials represent a supply chain vulnerability even for industries that don’t directly import them, like Construction. Rare earths, critical components in high tech products like smartphones, are still largely sourced from China. 

• Food Price Volatility Is Likely: The U.S. grows and raises most of its own food, but produce from Mexico and meat from Canada, along with specialty products from the EU. With reduced reliance on foreign food, American food prices will likely become more vulnerable to seasonal fluctuations. The much-maligned avocado toast, for example, could become more expensive due to tariffs on Mexican avocados.

• Service Sectors are Generally Well-Insulated… Provided the Economy Holds Up: Knowledge work, aside from some secondary vulnerabilities related to tools of the trade like computers and electronics, typically isn’t very dependent on foreign inputs, nor is it generally exported in great quantities to other nations. Still, these industries don’t exist in a vacuum. Investors’ FIRE-related (finance, insurance, real estate, leasing) projects could take a hit from a materials shortage affecting construction. 

Methodology

To create our rankings we selected 17 important industry clusters as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). We chose five metrics to estimate how likely the industry is to be negatively affected by tariffs in the short-term. For each metric, the industry was given a rank, which was then weighted, normalized, and aggregated to create an overall score out of 100. Industries with higher vulnerability received a higher score. 

Some caution applies: this report looked at the existing supply chain and export output of industries, as well as current and proposed U.S. and retaliatory tariffs at the time of writing. It doesn’t take into account general economic conditions that could impact industries like a recession, or even higher tariffs that could result from a prolonged trade war. 

The metrics we chose, along with their weights, were:

% Imported Commodity Usage and Secondary Vulnerabilities (60%): Combined, these metrics measure how dependent an industry is on foreign commodities. Data on imports was sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s 2023 Import Matrices. Data on commodity usage was sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s Use Tables. Figures were used to estimate the industry’s overall dependency on imports. 

In cases where the industry didn’t directly use significant amounts of imports–for example, construction doesn’t import materials directly but buys materials from domestic sources that have foreign suppliers–a secondary vulnerability was calculated based on important commodities in its supply chain. 

Exports as % of Total Output (25%): While America imports more, in aggregate, than it exports, some industries are more dependent on selling to foreign markets than others. Countries affected by new U.S. tariffs have threatened retaliatory tariffs that would affect the ability of American goods to compete in those markets. Data is drawn from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s 2023 Make-Use Tables.

Trading Partners 1 and 2 (15%): These metrics identify key trading partners for the industry. Relative weights were assigned to partners based on political rhetoric and size and scope of proposed tariffs. Weights for these metrics were informed by USITC, the US Census, and breaking news. 

5 Industries Likely To Be Harmed By Tariffs

1. Mining

Score (out of 100): 82.3 (1st)

No American industry is as dependent on foreign inputs as the mining sector. Over half of the $307.6 million of the commodities it used in 2023 (1st) originated from another country, the overwhelming majority of that in the form of oil and gas extraction, much of which originated from Canada, currently threatened with a 25% tariff. The industry is also exposed to China, particularly when it comes to rare earths. The proposed tariffs on Chinese goods are lower at 20%, but more likely to stick long-term.

Likewise, the US is a net energy exporter (1st), which could have downstream impacts on domestic production. Exemptions are more likely for this industry than most others, given its critical importance to national security, but in a worst-case scenario, the tit-for-tat escalation of reciprocal tariffs could shave off a lot of noses to spite faces. 

2. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

Score (out of 100): 79.3 (2nd)

While the nation is in no danger of going hungry, certain staples of the American diet could soon be under intense pricing pressure.

The U.S. grows and raises most of its own food, but foreign inputs make up over 10% of the commodities the industry uses (2nd). It exports nearly as much (4th), making domestic agriculture more vulnerable to reciprocal tariffs than most industries. Well-known is America’s reliance on Mexico for tomatoes, avocados, peppers, and many fruits and vegetables. Less remarked upon are the substantial beef, pork, and canola oil imports from Canada. Both the neighboring countries are facing 25% tariffs. 

3. Manufacturing

Score (out of 100): 70.6 (3rd)

From the perspective of encouraging domestic production, tariffs could potentially be a boon for American manufacturing in the long run. In the short term, however, the U.S. manufacturing sector does have some substantial vulnerabilities in its supply chains (2nd), notably the inputs of the mining (1st) and agricultural sectors (2nd) for durable and non-durable goods respectively. This leaves the manufacturing sector indirectly vulnerable to tariffs on China, Mexico, and even Canada.

U.S. manufacturers are also more reliant on foreign markets than most industries, with almost 15% (2nd) of industry output sold across borders. 

4. Transportation & Warehousing

Score (out of 100): 68.4 (4th)

Mobility is the name of the game for the transportation sector, and that means energy consumption and replacement parts for air, rail, water, and truck vehicles. The industry’s direct exposure to foreign inputs is relatively small (around 2.2%, 4th), with air transportation the most vulnerable of the four. Mexico, under threat of 25% tariffs, is a key trading partner when it comes to vehicle parts. Supply chain vulnerability for supporting infrastructure may also be an issue due to secondary dependence on Wholesale Trade. 

Transportation and warehousing is also vulnerable to reciprocal tariffs, with just short of 8% (6th) of its output exported. 

5. Wholesale Trade 

Score (out of 100): 63.9 (5th)

Composed largely of B2B transactions, wholesale trade procures many of the commodities used by other industries. As such it’s not so much dependent on direct inputs for its basic functioning, but has substantial exposure to secondary inputs (5th) in the form of the commodities it purchases for resale, many of which are downstream from manufacturing (3rd) and transportation (4th). This includes many products from China and Mexico which are facing 20% and 25% tariffs, respectively. Reciprocal tariffs are also a threat here, with almost 10% of the sector’s output exported (3rd).

How quickly the industry can pivot towards goods from domestic and non-tariffed foreign sources will be key, as will sustained demand from its customers.

The 5 Least Vulnerable Industries

13. Management of Companies and Enterprises

Score (out of 100): 49.2

Management is mostly a homegrown service, so there’s not much direct dependency on imported commodities. However, it has a substantial secondary reliance (5th) on computer and electronic products, which are heavily exposed to overseas supply chains.

14. Administrative and Waste Management Services

Score (out of 100): 48.6

Like management, administrative services and waste management are largely domestic affairs. Foreign inputs for the industry (8th) largely come in the form of vehicle parts and chemicals.

15. Educational Services

Score (out of 100): 45.9

Education services are mainly provided by domestic institutions, with most of their foreign dependencies (10th) coming in the form of professional support services and international students. 

16. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Score (out of 100): 43.5

While quite vulnerable to a recession, arts, entertainment, and recreation aren’t very reliant on imported commodities (9th) and, outside of major Hollywood blockbusters, aren’t all that dependent on foreign markets (14th). 

17. Retail Trade

Score (out of 100): 42.1

Retail trade, which sells mainly to end consumers rather than businesses or institutions, has a lot of flexibility both in terms of sourcing goods and in passing costs on to end consumers. While it does face significant indirect supply chain issues (5th), exports and reciprocal tariffs aren’t much of an issue (17th).